In the Age of the Coronavirus: United States/China Relationship
In June, 1989 the Chinese army opened fire on thousands of student demonstrators, who were mourning the death of a popular Chinese reformer, in the middle of Tiananmen Square in Beijing. In front of a world wide television audience, hundreds of students died and thousands were injured.
The newly elected President of the United States, George H. W. Bush, knew as much about China as any senior American politician, having served President Ford for several years as the United States Representative to China. Modern diplomatic relations between the United States and China only resumed in 1971 when President Nixon stunned the world by going to China to meet with Chairman Mao.
Despite pressure from senior aides and many members of Congress, Bush declined to take bold action in response to the massacre, reasoning that commercial and trade interaction with China over time would lead ultimately to more freedom in China and that inexorably, democracy would follow. President Bush was wrong.
Since Tiananmen Square, China has grown from the 9th largest economy in the world with a GDP of $350 billion to the 2nd largest economy with a GDP of $14.2 trillion. This represents an increase of over 4000% in 30 short years, which is an astounding accomplishment and resulted in the largest human exodus from poverty in history. Ironically, the huge trade relationship with the United States played a significant part in this growth story.
However, what price did the Chinese people pay for this economic success? In 2020, in terms of freedom and independence, China is as repressed today as at any time in their modern history, including the era of Chairman Mao. The grand bargain, Faustian in nature, is to trade a free press, freedom of speech, an open internet, and other freedoms for a higher standard of living. President Bush clearly thought that the Chinese population would choose both.
As further evidence of the mounting level of repression, Chinese citizens are faced today with the specter of Hong Kong independence demonstrations, insistence by Taiwan to remain independent, the expulsion of American journalists from China and the ongoing detention of 1,000,000 Uighur Muslim minorities in northwest China. With all of that as background, the novel coronavirus silently appeared in Wuhan sometime in November, 2019.
As reported by the Wall Street Journal and other mainstream sources, local Wuhan authorities became aware of the virus as early as October/November 2019. They were also aware at that time that the virus had the power to jump from human to human making it extraordinarily dangerous. As the cases accelerated towards the end of 2019, medical professionals in Wuhan had successfully sequenced the coronavirus genome, therefore providing significant understanding of the powers and dangers of the virus.
Instead of sharing this data, Chinese Communist party officials ordered the scientists and medical teams to destroy the samples and refrain from publishing their findings.
In spite of the order, Dr. Li, a doctor practicing in Wuhan, who recognized the dangers of the novel coronavirus, alerted some of his medical school colleagues to the emerging outbreak. Several days later, he was officially reprimanded and silenced by Party officials. Dr. Li actually succumbed to the virus several weeks later provoking a huge outcry by the Chinese people as discussed below.
At the same time, Wuhan officials permitted Chinese Lunar New Year festivities to proceed in spite of the risk and without notifying thousands of visitors and millions of residents of the danger. Amazingly, at about the same time, Taiwan health authorities notified the WHO that the virus exhibited the capacity for human transmission and was exceedingly dangerous. The WHO did not act on this information.
Weeks passed as China continued to cover up the crucial data and the WHO refused to take action, even praising the Chinese efforts relating to the virus. Finally, on March 11, long after learning about the anatomy of the pathogen and particularly, its rapid human to human transmission, the WHO declared a pandemic.
Scientists believe that had China acted even two or three weeks earlier and cooperated with the world health community, as much as 95% of the outbreak could have been avoided. Instead, Covid 19 has spread to more than 184 countries, creating 2.6 million cases and causing over 185,000 deaths and climbing.
If the Chinese behavior during the infancy of the virus in Wuhan were not enough, it is becoming more and more apparent that China is publishing false data regarding aspects of the pandemic in China, including number of new cases by region and deaths by region. These data are very important as guideposts to other nations in formulating successful containment plans to battle the virus and recover their national economies as soon and safely as possible.
Given the enormous damage to the Chinese economy from Covid 19, and the myriad encroachments on freedom and liberty of the Chinese people by the existing regime, one wonders whether political change will occur anytime soon. A major protest on line expressing outrage, grief and mistrust took place in February in China relating to Dr.Li who has become a Chinese martyr and hero after losing his life to Covid 19. The internet driven outburst led to a formal apology to the family of Dr. Li and a retraction of his earlier reprimand by the Party.
In the meantime, America must continue to evaluate its relationship with China. It seems clear that the Bush Doctrine of 1989 and Tiananmen Square has run its course. Despite a massive trade relationship with the U.S., China has not only failed to move towards more freedom, it has regressed. Since Nixon in 1971 and through 7 consecutive Presidents, the U.S. has worked with China. President Trump may well be remembered most for his decision to realign the relationship, at least commercially, and post pandemic the attitude could harden further across a wide array of areas. A core question remains: is it possible to have a partnership with an authoritarian regime?